Economists at ING have released a new report on the expected impact of appetite weight loss medications on European food demand. Insights reveal how much GLP-1 drugs will impact and reshape the industry in the coming years.
GLP-1 drugs are widely discussed as potentially transformative for food consumption, but their short-term impact in 2026 is minimal, ING said. Although users usually reduce their calorie intake by 15-20%, the low adoption rate (almost 2% of European adults and 12% of Americans) means that the total food demand is only reduced by about 0.25%, which indicates that banks are not a major concern for F&B companies.
GLP-1 use is increasing, but from a low base, so it is unlikely to significantly affect food demand in 2026–2027. However, some categories (snacks, candy, chocolate, and alcohol) are more vulnerable and should not be overlooked in the short term.
The impact of GLP-1 on the food industry
The global market for GLP-1 will reach US$100 billion in 2027, according to ING. The use of GLP-1 has led to significant changes in the way F&B is developed and marketed.
Some brands are experimenting with smaller portions, snack-sized meals, and portion-controlled packaging, while consciously packing in nutrients. GLP-1 has led to an increase in demand for fiber-rich options. Meanwhile, there is also a rise in the innovation of protein-enriched functional drinks, which deliberately target GLP-1 users.
For food manufacturers and restaurants, the focus is now on delivering taste, texture, and nutrition in small bites.
Despite reducing individual caloric intake, GLP-1 drugs have a minimal impact on food demand in 2026, so it is of limited concern to the F&B industry.
ING report: Key highlights
Besides the expected increase in GLP-1 adoption, ING expects the global market to grow by 20% in the next two years, driven by increased competition, lower prices, and broader government coverage.
There is limited current impact, but categories such as snacks, confectionery, and alcohol are already feeling the initial pressure.
ING has proposed four scenarios for 2030. In the most transformative forecast, the adoption of GLP-1 could reduce total calorie intake in Europe by 2.5-3.5% by 2030.
Accurately measuring data on how many people use drugs such as Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Wegovy injections, either as part of the treatment of type 2 diabetes or as a weight loss aid that has proven results, is almost impossible at this stage, because many people use personal prescriptions.
GLP-1: Transformative or overhyped?
ING asks a valid question in its report: Are the effects of GLP-1 on food production overhyped?
Thijs Geijer, senior sector economist in Food & Agri at ING, told First Food Ingredients that it is “still early.” ING’s estimate of 0.25% reduction in caloric demand shows that the effect of GLP-1 use on food production is still very small.
“To be materially significant, the use of GLP-1s needs to continue its steep growth trajectory. Such growth depends on lower prices, the successful introduction of more drugs (including pills) and broad reimbursement for more patients,” he said.
“The company reports that they are seeing some changes among users, including a preference for small portions, high nutrient density, and products with less sugar. Obviously, those trends are already there, but GLP-1s strengthen them.
Changes in grocery spending
The ING report also cites research from another report – “The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Demand” – which examines how consumers change their food purchases after adopting appetite-stimulating GLP-1s.
It documents the prevalence, motivations, and demographic patterns of GLP-1 adoption, and shows that US households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced grocery spending by 5.3% in the six months following adoption, with higher-income households reducing spending by 8.2%.
Key points include a 10% reduction in spending on chips and savory snacks, a 5% reduction in sweet bakery, cheese, and meat, and up to a 2.5% reduction in alcohol. Meanwhile, it showed an increase of 0–2.5% in fresh fruit and vegetables.
The increase in GLP-1 use has led consumers to change some purchasing decisions and reduce grocery spending. This is especially highlighted in indulgent categories like confectionery and snacks.
F&B companies have time to adapt to GLP-1
The ING report highlights another key point: companies have time to prepare for an increase in GLP-1s, as the industry monitors their impact on food choices and consumer demand in the coming years.
PepsiCo, Mondelēz, Hershey, and Danone have all highlighted in recent earnings calls that innovation is an important part of their GLP-1 adaptation strategy. Meanwhile, Nestlé is targeting GLP-1 users with its protein-rich Vital Pursuit product line.
Product innovation and reformulation are two aspects ING advises food manufacturers and brands to consider about how they will respond to a scenario where there will be a significant increase in the adoption of GLP-1.
Another recommendation is for companies to consider future marketing strategies that focus on consumers who are not using GLP-1 (which is the majority of the population in any scenario), while considering how to re-engage with consumers once they come off GLP-1. As indicated by ING, “after all, the temptations are still there, making it difficult for consumers to support changes in lifestyle and consumption habits.”
Research from the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, England, earlier this year, found that people tend to regain weight quickly after stopping weight loss drugs.
Use of oral GLP-1
Key food players are certainly leaning toward marketing products that appeal to this growing group of consumers, even if the number of people taking GLP-1 is still there.
The oral format was first commercialized and the first oral GLP-1 for weight loss (pill version of semaglutide, the same drug as Wegovy / Ozempic) was approved at the end of 2025 and launched at the beginning of 2026.
“Many users are curious about whether GLP-1 treatment will work for them, but do not feel the need (or have the money) to continue. This shows that it is a very dynamic group, which also makes it more difficult to measure how many people are actually using it now. So, it makes sense to filter the noise and look for the strongest data when assessing the impact on a specific market,” said Geijer.
“Only a few products and categories appear to be isolated (including fruit, vegetables, water, and yogurt). They can evolve when knowledge about the dietary needs of users becomes more mature, and when the combination of medicine and dietary advice becomes more common. Public health authorities will encourage this to increase the possibility of permanent lifestyle changes.”
F&B stakeholders will monitor GLP-1 trends, especially pills, which are in the final stages of development, expected to influence GLP-1 usage.
GLP-1 pills to increase intake?
New oral GLP-1-type drugs are in the final stages of development, with orforglipron (a non-peptide GLP-1 pill) expected to be approved later this year.
Pills are considered a more convenient way to take GLP-1 medications. “In our view, oral use is one of the events that lead to continued interest around GLP-1s and high demand,” added Geijer.
In conclusion, Geijer explained that over the next 3–5 years, F&B stakeholders should monitor GLP-1 trends.
“First, look at the current number of users in the main market. Second, monitor the decision of the public health authorities about wider payments, and third, for companies based in Europe, it makes sense to monitor what is happening with the sales volume in the UK retail given that it is the most advanced European market in terms of the use of GLP-1.”
GLP-1 adoption may be too small to move the needle now, but not too small to ignore, especially for the indulgent category.
For F&B manufacturers, a gradual adaptation strategy will probably be sufficient for 2026 and 2027. However, it is wise to consider more extreme scenarios to avoid surprises a few years from now, notes ING.
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