AI’s Black Friday

The GenAI industry may be in worse shape than people realize. Released on Thursday nightBefore all the messages posted below.

I doubt how bad Friday will be, so the title of this article (“AI’s Black Friday”) is a bit tongue in cheek. But Friday was worse; One and a half trillion dollars in market value disappeared overnight in the tech industry.

The Dow fell, but only by 1.35%. Chip companies (NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron) GPU lasers (Corveo and Nebius) and some major AI-related companies (Oracle, Microsoft, Meta, etc.) took big hits:

The semiconductor-heavy S. Korean market also fell.

That’s not too bad either. Perhaps this expression:

Remember this tweet?

The game is on. “Investment” is another term for bailout.

§

I had This is To say about it:

In short, it stinks.

Bailing out OpenAI means crony socialism and corruption (remember the $25 million donation from Greg Brockman and his wife?), blocking capitalism from its natural course.

§

But it’s not just OpenAI:

The ramifications of this could be larger, with geopolitics more important than economics. As I Mentioned in XNo one is going to trust an American AI company partially owned by the US government. Just like the US doesn’t trust Huawei, Europe and Asia aren’t going to trust companies like OpenAI and Google. The new cold war will be about AI. (And Google probably won’t accept Trump’s offer of investment, their revenue is global; OpenAI may be so desperate they have no choice.)

§

But back to economics. Who can forget the unhappy meta that ultimately wins the prize for more money burned and fewer results?

§

Meanwhile, it was announced yesterday that Musk is leasing another 110,000 GPUs to Google and 220,000 to Anthropic.

Last year, people had to steal GPUs from armored trucks. This year, SpaceX’s AI division has been leasing GPUs left, right and center because they can’t figure out what to do with them.

If the criteria is “what you need” or the AGI is really close, Elon will hoard LLMs rather than lease them.

Some may ask if Elon is making money on this deal (I don’t know), but the real question is why he’s leasing the chips he hoarded last year in the first place.

Whether SpaceX makes or loses money on deals with Google and Anthropic, they dare to win the frontier model race by out-arming their competitors rather than themselves.

§

And a friend who read a draft of it said, “If SpaceX is leasing back to Google and Anthropic, it’s servers and chips now. Those guys don’t need to buy it themselves. Elon clearly bought a lot of hardware he didn’t need. He didn’t buy significant capacity before the need or use case arose.”

None of this bodes well for Nvidia, CoreWeave, Oracle, Nebius, Micron and various other hardware and semiconductor providers.

And my friend adds, “So Google and Meta are also true [historically] Companies that are highly cash-flow positive may need to sell stock to continue funding their AI investments. Shows you that this whole thing is a black hole.”

§

Share it

I leave you with these predictions, Wrote a few days agoBefore the poop starts hitting the fan:

In #1, I should have emphasized reliability, since that is also lacking in LLMs, and is a key part of why RoI is limited.. Future frameworks, perhaps completely different, will have to find a way to address that.

I don’t know if Monday’s market will continue the downward trends we saw on Friday. But it should.

Coming soon: Why AI has had less of an impact on real-world productivity than many expected.

#AIs #Black #Friday

Leave a Comment