The AI memory supercycle is real and still running. High bandwidth memory (HBM) became the scarce resource around which the entire AI industry was organized. The early investors who got there made a lot of money.
It changed the conversation on AI infrastructure. Authority is a constraint. But the problem engineers lose sleep over is optical interconnect, the technology that moves data between chips at the speed of light, within and between servers. As AI models get bigger and more distributed, moving data across copper wires becomes much slower and more power-hungry.
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This rare signal will flash again. In 2009, a “double down” signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker, Nvidia. For the first time in years, the same “Total Confidence” signal is flashing for a company 1/100th higher than Nvidia. Continue »
Silicon photonics is becoming the next critical layer in the AI stack. The silicon photonics market is valued at $3.6 billion by 2026 and is projected to reach $15.7 billion by 2033 — a compound annual growth rate of 23.2%. Lumentum Holdings (NASDAQ: LYTE) I want to buy stocks in this market now, before this cyclical jam.
In March 2026, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ) Invested $2 billion in Lumentum through a private placement of convertible preferred stock and signed a multi-billion dollar purchase commitment for advanced laser components. A month later, Lumentum announced a 240,000-square-foot manufacturing facility in Greensboro, North Carolina, which it had acquired from semiconductor company Corvo. The facility will make indium phosphide (InP)-based optical devices — the lasers that power next-generation AI transceivers — with Nvidia confirmed as a customer.
The Greensboro facility is not expected to ramp up production until mid-2028. Think about that for a second. Nvidia isn’t just paying for Lumentum’s future capacity today — it’s building the supply chain infrastructure for a product cycle that won’t be complete for two years. This is an indication that the company is locking in an important supplier before demand exceeds supply.
One risk: Lumentum’s stock is up 1,100% in the past year
Lumentum’s stock has moved sharply in 2026, which may feel late. Over the past year, the stock has risen an extraordinary 1,110%, from around $77 to $938 a share.
But Inby Fab hasn’t made it yet. When that fab alone starts working, it can push the ticker up by another 100%. A generation of 1.6 terabit-per-second transceivers was rarely deployed at scale. The transition to co-packaged optics — where the transceiver moves within the chip set — is a product cycle that has yet to generate meaningful revenue for any company.
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